EURUSD Expectations

The anticipated reversal has materialized in the EURUSD and we can now focus on how far the rally is likely to extend. Elliott wave guidelines state that wave 4 often alternates with wave 2 of the same degree with respect to character. In other words, if wave 2 is sharp and simple then expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Wave 2 (13003-13384) was sharp (retracing 78.6% of wave 1) and simple (3 wave zigzag) thus we should expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Shallow means a 23.6%-38.2% retracement of wave 3. The corresponding levels are 12378 and 12570. Daily RSI will help us time the end of wave 4 as well but we’ll deal with that when appropriate.